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Offer Testing Algorithm


Offer testing algorithm

Traffic arbitrage, like many other areas of income, is cyclical. One of the most important stages of the cycle is the testing stage. The offer testing algorithm consists of three parts:

  1. Hypothesis — we build hypotheses, conduct preliminary analytics, prepare creatives.
  2. Measurement — we make a test flow, comprehensively test the bundle (creatives, source, offer), monitor the main indicators.
  3. Screening - turn off ineffective advertising campaigns to effectively drain to zero and plus, if you're lucky (luck is also important). Select converting links and scale them. We repeat the algorithm.

Building a hypothesis

The basis of successful traffic arbitration is the test principle. Everything is tested: advertising slogans, products, pictures, etc. At the same time, it is important to evaluate the indicators correctly. To do this, analytics is configured once, and then there is a cycle of tests, the search for effective bundles and turning off unprofitable ones. The more cyclical tests are done, the higher the profit and the chance of further growth. Below we provide screenshots taken from ADVANCETS advertising monitoring service . For our article, we took an offer from the exclusive OFFERRUM affiliate program (we recommend that you look there more often in the future). Offer name: Pix digital backpack , we will make all calculations and assumptions based on it.

pix digital backpack

Creating a Hypothesis

A hypothesis is built from assumptions and answers to questions:

  1. What is the target audience for my product?
  2. What is the best platform to advertise on?
  3. What ad will go?
  4. What is the price of an advertisement?

The second part of the hypothesis is to calculate how much income you will receive.

Indicators to look at:

  2. landing page transitions
  3. conversion to orders

Example: 1000 people will visit the site, how many people will leave their data (click on the order).

In the list of offers, for each landing page, the percentage conversion is indicated:

Offer Testing Algorithm

For a month, 9.26%, that is, about 18 leads out of 200 clicks lead to a confirmed application for this offer.

Each product has its own indicator - this is a summary of statistics for all OFFERRUM partners, you can count on the fact that if you launch advertising for the target audience, then your indicator will be better than that indicated for this offer.

Now you have one variable and it is known - the conversion from clicks to orders (CR).

To advertise the offer, we will choose a social. VK network, we will place advertising posts in public - based on data on the target audience provided by OFFERRUM :

analytics Offer Testing Algorithm

Obviously, our potential audience will be men and women aged 25 to 44.

Taking into account this information, we are looking through advancets for the necessary publics that meet the given criteria of the target audience.

Offer Testing Algorithm
How to create your own advertising post for public VK

The simplest and most proven way is to borrow advertising posts that have been successfully untwisted from other arbitrageurs.

To do this, go to advancets, to the tab: "Advertising Posts", where we enter the name of the offer, into the text search box.

Seo Search Box Offer Testing Algorithm

Then we press the search button and advances gives us all the results, in the form of advertising posts that were advertised with the given word.

We select a suitable post and proceed to its placement in the selected VK publics relative to our target audience (target audience)

Placement of an advertising post in public

It was already said earlier that we should select publics based on the age of our target audience. However, do not forget that you should pay attention to the public indicators themselves, such as its traffic statistics, post reach, the number of likes and reposts on each post.

Selection of public for placement:

We set the parameters of the age of 25-45 years, and begin the search for the public.

Of the proposed options, we immediately cut off publics in which statistics are closed, since this may indicate that the public is being cheated by bots and other garbage.

Offer Testing Algorithm

Next, next to each public name, we see parameters such as:

  1. CPM - the cost of 1000 impressions in a group
  2. Post reach is the average number of users viewing a community post.
  3. Reach day - the average daily number of users who viewed all community posts
  4. ER post is an indicator that reflects the level of interaction of the audience with the post in the public.
  5. ER day is an indicator that reflects the daily level of interaction of the audience with a post in the public.
vk ads manager

Next, click on the name of the public you are interested in and see the statistics of this community, based on it, we can once again make sure that advancets has selected a public for us in accordance with our age parameters and gender.

The next step is to go to the public itself and look at the activity of the participants regarding the posts.

After we are convinced that the public for advertising is suitable for us, we write off with the admin and buy an advertising post.

We build a hypothesis about the conversion from views to transitions and then to profit:

Now let's find out how many transitions should be in order for the bundle to go to zero, and then to plus.

Let's collect all the data that we have and carry out the calculation, no more difficult than a school math problem:

  1. Given: reward on the offer - 700 rubles
  2. Approval (number of confirmed orders by phone): 36.87% based on statistics in the partner network.
  3. The cost of an advertising post is 1028 rubles.
  4. The number of transitions from an advertising post is still an unknown value.
  5. CR - 9.8%. Those. 18 applications out of 200 visits to the site (see this value in the description of the offer when connecting).

We know that out of 18 applications, only 7 are confirmed on average. In order to reach zero in terms of advertising costs due to remuneration, it is necessary that the advertising post had at least 100 clicks.

In theory, it looks like this. Let's take the minimum value of 100 transitions - this is 8 applications. 8 applications is an average of 2-3 approvals, taking into account the statistics of the PP. 2 appruva is 1400R. Net profit: 1400 - 1028 = 372.

For a hypothesis, it is important to know how much you will spend on it, this figure is quite accurate, you know it in advance, but how much you will earn is a vague value.

Nevertheless, doing such a calculation is very useful, you pre-screen the unacceptable price for advertising posts.

Important! Create several hypotheses, use different channels and layouts, but the result should be the same - the hypothesis should not be unprofitable!

We optimize the advertising campaign when placing VK advertising posts

When measuring the return on an advertising post (in the form of leads), you can always identify a public with a certain category of interests, gender and age, which brought the largest number of leads and allowed you to get a profit.

So, after placing an advertising post in several thematic publics, we see that the leads come from a specific public.

After that, we look at the statistics of this public. Let's say that his main target audience is women from 30 to 45 years old.

chart google

This is a fairly wide and vague age range, you will have to divide it into parts and shed traffic from publics in order to find exactly the audience that converts well on your advertising posts.

Let's divide the audience according to the maximum target age of our target audience.

30-35 years old and 35-45 years old and advertise in public for each age range.

So for the audience range of 30-35 years, the public is perfect: "Modern Girl" in the statistics of which, the presence of our target audience is observed.

Offer Testing Algorithm

For an audience of 35-45 years old, public: "Between us, girls", with relevant statistics for the target audience.

Offer Testing Algorithm

You should analyze the statistics obtained after the tests and find out what age audience leaves the most applications for this product. As an example, after tests, it may turn out that men and women aged 35-45 buy the best. So we leave this category of publics with a suitable target audience for a given age, and we do not consider publics with a different audience of 30-35 years old for further placement.


At the test stage, you can go into a slight loss, but these financial losses will be justified. As a result, you will select an audience that will give an excellent envelope and compensate for all costs.


Before you start advertising, you need to correctly configure the statistics in your personal account.

Consider the main sections of statistics and learn how to use them in your work:

yandex ads manager

1. Time - displays data broken down by days and hours.

2. Geography - allows you to display statistics by country. When you click on a particular country, you can also view detailed information on cities separately.

3. Offers - allows you to find out about the number of conversions and clicks in the context for each offer that you work with.

4. Streams - groups information by your streams

5. Devices is one of the largest statistics tools that allows you to analyze your traffic by filters: devices, browsers, OS.

·Devices — in this submenu you can find out information about your traffic in the context of the devices from which clicks/conversions were made.

·Operating systems — unlike the previous submenu, here you can analyze your traffic based on what operating systems were used by your users, whom you attracted to the offers of our network.

· Browsers - the final menu in the Devices section, allowing you to split and analyze traffic based on which browsers your client used.

6. Subaccounts - Subaccount(SubID) is an additional parameter that you can pass to the stream link to save an arbitrary label for each click. Our system allows you to transfer up to 5 sub-accounts at the same time for each click. For example, the number of the advertisement or the source.

In statistics, this is a sorting method that allows you to find out the number of completed clicks and conversions in the context of each transferred subaccount. (since our statistics accept up to 5 subaccounts for each click, when viewing statistics, grouping is available separately for each of them).

Usage example:

You get traffic to your offers from 30 VK ads and you need to find out which ad is converting and whether it brings profit. To do this, you need to mark each affiliate link with a subaccount (add the number of the ad in the link) and then in the OFFERRUM statistics you can get a cut of the one you need.

7. Actions — this type of statistics displays detailed information on each completed conversion, namely: date of the click (when your link was clicked), date of the conversion (lead), flow, subaccount (Sub ID), program \ goal (for which conversion made), GEO\IP\Referer(source of referral), conversion status in the system and income from this conversion)

8. Goals are a user action for which a monetary reward is paid.

9. Pages - this item shows from which landing and transit pages there were transitions and also conversions on them.

10. Platforms - relevant only for the owners of their websites, forums. It contains information about clicks and conversions for each site that you have created in the system.

According to the data, turn off what definitely does not work, leave what brings in income. Over time, only those advertising campaigns that generate income will remain.

How to evaluate effectiveness?

1. Calculate how much was spent = the cost of attracting an order × the number of orders

2. Calculate how much received = your reward × number of orders

3. Profitability of the channel = Received − Spent

If the direction is unprofitable, it must be turned off or changed.

Once again, here is a good example of traffic draining:

1. We create a hypothesis from assumptions and answers to questions:

What is the target audience for my product?

What is the best platform to advertise on?

· What promotional post will go?

· What is the price of an advertisement?

2. Indicators that you need to focus on when draining to an offer:


Landing page transitions

·Conversion to orders

3. To quickly select the required audience for an offer, the easiest way is to use the advancets advertising monitoring service, where you just need to enter the name of the required offer and open the statistics of publics in which this offer is already advertised.

4. To select an advertising post, we also enter the name of our offer in the advancets service in the search for posts and select the necessary advertising post.

5. From the collected data on the target audience from point 3. Enter the received age and GEO parameters when searching for publics, through advancets. And we get the result in the form of a list of suitable publics for placing an advertising post.

6. We agree with the community admins on placing an advertising post in the necessary publics, while not forgetting to check the publics for activity, in the form of reposts, likes and comments.

7. After the traffic began to come from advertising posts, we begin to track which publics the leads came from and which ones did not, using the subid at the end of each affiliate link.

8. After screening out the publics that did not bring leads, we re-purchase advertising in the publics that brought conversions, we are looking for publics similar in topic and audience in order to place advertising posts in them.

9. For a more detailed flow of traffic to the offer, you can segment the audience that brought us conversions and buy additional advertising in public, dividing the audience for the nth number of years.

10. After a successful drain into a plus, start scaling your working bundle by purchasing advertising in nearby thematic publics, or by adding additional sources of traffic.


Without initial costs, this cycle (Hypothesis-Sampling-Sifting) cannot be started.

On one attempt, it is impossible to determine for sure whether your hypothesis is unprofitable. Therefore, do not worry if you merge the first budget into minus, you will have valuable information in the form of statistics, thanks to which it will be possible to go into plus.

Without regular control (measuring, counting, turning off unprofitable directions), this cycle will quickly stop working and will not provide information for statistics.

On one attempt, it is impossible to determine for sure whether your hypothesis is unprofitable. Do a series of tests with a large number of clicks to the landing page of the offer (500 clicks on average).

The more iterations you make, the higher your chances of finding a winning strategy.

If you do the same thing in advertising as all arbitrageurs, you will at best get a small plus or a stable zero.